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Trial season

2026 season

Every leader in role, their reading for the year, and where their stock stands against the field after 9 months. The season runs the calendar year and settles on 31 December.

These readings were calculated in October 2026 with the rules now fixed, not sealed before the year began, so 2026 is a trial run of the board. The first sealed season is 2027: its readings are published on 1 December and sealed on 31 December.

Months settled
9 of 12
Leaders
135
Field median
+0.5%
S&P 500
+12.7%

Month by month

October: quiet month

No Rebound list this month. Next Active month: November. 3 names are in low tide.

This month’s lists

Active months are the six in which a year’s reading tends to show in the stock. A settled month shows how many of the field’s stocks rose in it, with the S&P 500’s own month beside it; the outlined cell is this month. Each settled month opens its lists and settlement.

The year by level

January to September

The season’s measure is the field: a stock above the median of every leader’s stock that year is a win, whatever the market did. So far 66 of 132 stand above it.

The 2026 season by level: leaders, stocks up for the year so far, stocks above the field median, median return, and the 1995–2025 record above the field.
LevelLeadersUp for the yearAbove the fieldMedian1995–2025 above field
Strong43 of 43 of 4+8.7%58%
Firm3019 of 2919 of 29+8.0%52%
Even7836 of 7635 of 76−2.1%49%
Soft158 of 158 of 15+4.9%47%
Weak81 of 81 of 8−19.4%41%

The last column is the record the reading was built on: every leader-year 1995–2025 at that level, and how often the stock finished above the same year’s field. How it was tested.

The board

135 leaders

Ranked by the stock's return for the year so far. Rank is the percentile among the field, 100 the best. A stock missing a month's return is unranked.

135 leaders, best year first; unranked last

  1. Rank 100

    Stéphane BancelMRNA

    Year so far +553.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  2. Rank 99

    Patrick Soon-ShiongIBRX

    Year so far +376.8%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  3. Rank 98

    Michael DellDELL

    Year so far +331.3%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  4. Rank 97

    Lisa SuAMD

    Year so far +185.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  5. Rank 97

    George KurtzCRWD

    Year so far +125.9%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  6. Rank 96

    Ken XieFTNT

    Year so far +125.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  7. Rank 95

    Nikesh AroraPANW

    Year so far +115.7%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  8. Rank 94

    George ZoleyGEO

    Year so far +89.0%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  9. Rank 94

    Matthew PrinceNET

    Year so far +76.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  10. Rank 93

    Randy AltschulerXMTR

    Year so far +72.9%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field above field

  11. Rank 92

    James L. DolanMSGS

    Year so far +56.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  12. Rank 91

    Jason WilkDAVE

    Year so far +45.2%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  13. Rank 91

    Chuck RobbinsCSCO

    Year so far +41.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  14. Rank 90

    James L. DolanSPHR

    Year so far +41.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  15. Rank 89

    Anthony WoodROKU

    Year so far +40.4%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  16. Rank 88

    Darren WoodsXOM

    Year so far +37.9%

    Reading Firm, 2 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  17. Rank 88

    Mike WirthCVX

    Year so far +37.7%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  18. Rank 87

    Ryan LanceCOP

    Year so far +36.6%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  19. Rank 86

    Thomas PeterffyIBKR

    Year so far +33.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  20. Rank 85

    Roger PenskePAG

    Year so far +29.6%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field above field

  21. Rank 84

    Robert A. Frist Jr.HSTM

    Year so far +29.3%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  22. Rank 84

    Peter P. GassnerVEEV

    Year so far +27.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  23. Rank 83

    James QuinceyKO

    Year so far +25.5%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  24. Rank 82

    Mark SmuckerSJM

    Year so far +25.3%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  25. Rank 81

    Tim CookAAPL

    Year so far +22.9%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  26. Rank 81

    Jensen HuangNVDA

    Year so far +22.8%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  27. Rank 80

    Drew HoustonDBX

    Year so far +21.8%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  28. Rank 79

    Jonah PerettiBZFD

    Year so far +21.5%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  29. Rank 78

    Albert BourlaPFE

    Year so far +20.5%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  30. Rank 77

    Joe GebbiaABNB

    Year so far +18.4%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  31. Rank 77

    Brian CheskyABNB

    Year so far +18.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  32. Rank 76

    Ernest S. RadyAAT

    Year so far +17.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  33. Rank 75

    Jeffrey S. LorberbaumMHK

    Year so far +14.1%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field above field

  34. Rank 75

    Andrew WittyUNH

    Year so far +13.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  35. Rank 74

    Jack DorseyXYZ

    Year so far +13.0%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  36. Rank 73

    Richard D. KinderKMI

    Year so far +12.8%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  37. Rank 72

    Aaron LevieBOX

    Year so far +11.9%

    Reading Strong, 2 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  38. Rank 72

    Michael J. HartnettRBC

    Year so far +11.3%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  39. Rank 71

    Martine RothblattUTHR

    Year so far +11.2%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  40. Rank 70

    Mike Cannon-BrookesTEAM

    Year so far +10.6%

    Reading Strong, 2 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  41. Rank 69

    Lachlan MurdochNWSA

    Year so far +10.5%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  42. Rank 69

    Mark ZuckerbergMETA

    Year so far +10.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  43. Rank 68

    Harris H. SimmonsZION

    Year so far +9.3%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  44. Rank 67

    Steve MaddenSHOO

    Year so far +9.2%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  45. Rank 66

    Sundar PichaiGOOG

    Year so far +8.8%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  46. Rank 66

    Stewart W. Bainum Jr.CHH

    Year so far +8.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  47. Rank 65

    David RicksLLY

    Year so far +8.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  48. Rank 64

    Andy JassyAMZN

    Year so far +8.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  49. Rank 63

    Sanjit BiswasIOT

    Year so far +7.6%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field above field

  50. Rank 63

    Satya NadellaMSFT

    Year so far +6.7%

    Reading Strong, 2 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  51. Rank 62

    Alex KarpPLTR

    Year so far +5.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  52. Rank 61

    Antonio R. Sanchez Jr.IBOC

    Year so far +5.2%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field above field

  53. Rank 60

    Eric YuanZM

    Year so far +5.2%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  54. Rank 59

    Jeff AroninHRMY

    Year so far +4.9%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field above field

  55. Rank 59

    Girish MathruboothamFRSH

    Year so far +4.4%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  56. Rank 58

    Jamie DimonJPM

    Year so far +4.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  57. Rank 57

    Hamid R. MoghadamPLD

    Year so far +4.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  58. Rank 56

    David SolomonGS

    Year so far +3.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  59. Rank 56

    Robert J. PeraUI

    Year so far +3.0%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 2 drags

    Field above field

  60. Rank 55

    Henry SamueliAVGO

    Year so far +2.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  61. Rank 54

    John StankeyT

    Year so far +1.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  62. Rank 53

    Larry CulpGE

    Year so far +1.6%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  63. Rank 53

    Richard HayneURBN

    Year so far +1.5%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  64. Rank 52

    Ralph LaurenRL

    Year so far +1.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  65. Rank 51

    Michael J. SaylorMSTR

    Year so far +0.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field above field

  66. Rank 50

    Brian MoynihanBAC

    Year so far +0.6%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field above field

  67. Rank 50

    Larry FinkBLK

    Year so far +0.5%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  68. Rank 49

    Vladimir TenevHOOD

    Year so far −0.5%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  69. Rank 48

    Charles R. SchwabSCHW

    Year so far −1.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  70. Rank 47

    Jorge MasMTZ

    Year so far −1.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  71. Rank 47

    William R. BerkleyWRB

    Year so far −2.6%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  72. Rank 46

    Steven RalesDHR

    Year so far −2.6%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  73. Rank 45

    Liu QiangdongJD

    Year so far −4.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  74. Rank 44

    Mary BarraGM

    Year so far −4.7%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  75. Rank 44

    William Clay Ford Jr.F

    Year so far −4.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  76. Rank 43

    Jeffrey SprecherICE

    Year so far −5.2%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  77. Rank 42

    Max LevchinAFRM

    Year so far −7.0%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  78. Rank 41

    A. G. SulzbergerNYT

    Year so far −7.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  79. Rank 41

    Tobias LütkeSHOP

    Year so far −7.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  80. Rank 40

    Andrew DudumHIMS

    Year so far −8.2%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  81. Rank 39

    Nick WoodmanGPRO

    Year so far −8.5%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 2 drags

    Field below field

  82. Rank 38

    William DingNTES

    Year so far −10.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  83. Rank 38

    Kevin PlankUAA

    Year so far −10.3%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  84. Rank 37

    William P. LauderEL

    Year so far −10.5%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  85. Rank 36

    Jay ChaudhryZS

    Year so far −11.3%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  86. Rank 35

    John H. TysonTSN

    Year so far −11.6%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  87. Rank 34

    Joe MansuetoMORN

    Year so far −11.8%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  88. Rank 34

    Bill McDermottNOW

    Year so far −12.5%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  89. Rank 33

    Charlie ScharfWFC

    Year so far −12.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  90. Rank 32

    Marc BenioffCRM

    Year so far −12.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  91. Rank 31

    Marcos GalperinMELI

    Year so far −14.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  92. Rank 31

    Jim KochSAM

    Year so far −15.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  93. Rank 30

    Robert ReffkinCOMP

    Year so far −16.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  94. Rank 29

    Dara KhosrowshahiUBER

    Year so far −16.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  95. Rank 28

    Brian ArmstrongCOIN

    Year so far −17.6%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  96. Rank 28

    Frank Fertitta IIIRRR

    Year so far −17.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  97. Rank 27

    Barry SternlichtSTWD

    Year so far −17.9%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  98. Rank 26

    Marc RowanAPO

    Year so far −18.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  99. Rank 25

    Luis von AhnDUOL

    Year so far −18.9%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  100. Rank 25

    Stuart A. MillerLEN

    Year so far −19.4%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  101. Rank 24

    Brian L. RobertsCMCSA

    Year so far −19.4%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  102. Rank 23

    Richard D. FairbankCOF

    Year so far −19.4%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  103. Rank 22

    Alan B. MillerUHS

    Year so far −19.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  104. Rank 22

    Elon MuskTSLA

    Year so far −21.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  105. Rank 21

    Chris KempczinskiMCD

    Year so far −23.0%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  106. Rank 20

    Roger C. AltmanEVR

    Year so far −23.7%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  107. Rank 19

    Arvind KrishnaIBM

    Year so far −24.2%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  108. Rank 19

    Stephen SchwarzmanBX

    Year so far −25.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  109. Rank 18

    Antony P. ResslerARES

    Year so far −25.6%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  110. Rank 17

    Ted SarandosNFLX

    Year so far −25.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  111. Rank 16

    Danny MeyerSHAK

    Year so far −27.7%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  112. Rank 15

    Henry KravisKKR

    Year so far −28.0%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  113. Rank 15

    George RobertsKKR

    Year so far −28.0%

    Reading Firm, 2 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  114. Rank 14

    Larry EllisonORCL

    Year so far −28.9%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  115. Rank 13

    Amnon ShashuaMBLY

    Year so far −29.2%

    Reading Strong, 3 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  116. Rank 13

    Avishai AbrahamiWIX

    Year so far −30.6%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  117. Rank 12

    Shantanu NarayenADBE

    Year so far −31.5%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  118. Rank 11

    David RubensteinCG

    Year so far −31.5%

    Reading Soft, 1 signal, 2 drags

    Field below field

  119. Rank 11

    William E. Conway Jr.CG

    Year so far −31.5%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  120. Rank 9

    Gary FriedmanRH

    Year so far −32.0%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  121. Rank 9

    Robin LiBIDU

    Year so far −33.5%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  122. Rank 8

    Jeremy StoppelmanYELP

    Year so far −39.1%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  123. Rank 7

    Miriam AdelsonLVS

    Year so far −40.9%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  124. Rank 6

    Jared IsaacmanFOUR

    Year so far −42.6%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  125. Rank 6

    Alan TreflerPEGA

    Year so far −44.0%

    Reading Weak, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  126. Rank 5

    Ivan KaufmanABR

    Year so far −45.1%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  127. Rank 4

    Martín MigoyaGLOB

    Year so far −46.9%

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field below field

  128. Rank 3

    Arkadiy DobkinEPAM

    Year so far −47.1%

    Reading Even, 1 signal, 1 drag

    Field below field

  129. Rank 3

    David BaszuckiRBLX

    Year so far −47.7%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  130. Rank 2

    Rich BartonZ

    Year so far −60.2%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  131. Rank 1

    Jeff GreenTTD

    Year so far −67.9%

    Reading Soft, 0 signals, 1 drag

    Field below field

  132. Rank 0

    Jon OringerSSTK

    Year so far −76.8%

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field below field

  133. Rank —

    Blake L. SartiniGDEN

    Year so far 5 of 9 mo

    Reading Firm, 1 signal, 0 drags

    Field unranked

  134. Rank —

    Charles ErgenSATS

    Year so far 6 of 9 mo

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field unranked

  135. Rank —

    Barry DillerIAC

    Year so far 6 of 9 mo

    Reading Even, 0 signals, 0 drags

    Field unranked

How a season works

Calendar year, field-scored

  1. Readings. Every leader in role gets one of five levels for the year, with a count of signals and drags. They are published on 1 December of the year before and sealed on 31 December; nothing changes after that. If the rules change, the next season carries a new version and the seasons already sealed stand as published.
  2. Picks. Players pick leaders for the season. A Strong reading costs more than an Even one, so a pick is a view on the stock, not on the reading. Picks open with the first sealed season.
  3. Scoring. Each month the stock is scored against the field: above the season’s median return, or where it ranks among that year’s leaders. The market’s own move does not score.
  4. Settlement. The season settles on 31 December. Points first; the month pages carry the monthly settlements and the Rebound and Low-tide lists along the way.
Readings published
October 2026, the rules now fixed; the year had begun
Sealed
Not sealed: a trial run of the board
Season
1 January 2026 to 31 December 2026, settled month by month against the field
Readings file
The live file, built 16 October 2026 from research export f0c9e40; rebuilt when the research changes
Readings
One of five levels a year, with how many signals and drags stacked, computed from the birth date over the thirteen possible birth hours and issued only where at least ten agree. Built 2026-10-16 from research export f0c9e40. The rules stay in-house.
Stock data
Calendar-year and monthly % change of adjusted close. Volatility % = annualised stdev of the 12 monthly returns. No prices are included. Adjusted close is split-adjusted, so a stock split never appears as a move in anything plotted here, and stock splits are not recorded as events.
Birth dates
206 of the 319 people in this dataset now have at least one source recorded here, across 207 of the 325 leader-company records — six people ran two companies and are stored once for each. Of those sources — all 207 of them — 204 are a stated age read out of an SEC proxy statement, which bounds a birth year and says nothing about the day; one is an age stated in a press report; two state the day itself, one from an official gazette read by a person and one from an encyclopedia. The day is what every reading on this site is calculated from, so for all but those two birth dates no source here backs the part that is used. The 204 records the pass produced were not reviewed by a person: each source names who read it. Six findings from the same pass are deliberately not entered, because in each one the date held here falls outside the bound the filing implies, and telling an ordinary record-date lag from a real disagreement needs a person rather than arithmetic. An absent entry still means no source is recorded here yet.
Research export
Version 2, generated 2026-10-16 from research commit 7d490ef with uncommitted changes

Research and exploration only. Not investment advice. A reading describes a leader's year from their birth date, not the stock.